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US election: Both Trump and Biden still have paths to Electoral College win

WASHINGTON (BLOOMBERG) – The presidential battlefield is narrowing to a smaller number of states, with both US President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden still having paths to victory. Mr Biden now has 238 electoral votes to Mr Trump’s 213.

Mr Biden’s victory in Arizona, a state Mr Trump won in 2016, gives him more breathing room as the “Blue Wall” states remain uncounted.

Even without Pennsylvania, Mr Biden could now reach exactly 270 electoral votes – the minimum necessary to win – if he can win Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Nevada, where he was leading early on Wednesday (Nov 4).

Those states still have significant numbers of votes outstanding from absentee voters and large urban counties that tend to vote Democratic. Election officials in both states said it would be later Wednesday before they could finish counting those votes.

The difference-maker for Mr Biden could end up being a single electoral vote from the second congressional district of Nebraska, one of two states that splits its votes. Mr Trump won that district in 2016 but Mr Biden won it on Tuesday.

Georgia and North Carolina would give Mr Biden additional options, but Mr Trump appears to have leads in both those states. A Biden win in Nevada, a state the Democratic contender Mrs Hillary Clinton won in 2016, wouldn’t help him gain ground on Trump.

Mr Trump needs at least four of the following states to pass 270 electoral votes: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He won them all in 2016. If Mr Biden wins any two of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, he will win.

There is a scenario in which the race could come down to a single electoral vote – or even a tie. Maine also splits its votes by congressional district, and one of its two districts remains up for grabs.

If Mr Trump wins that vote – and loses Wisconsin and North Carolina – both Mr Biden and Mr Trump will have 269 electoral votes. In that case, Mr Trump would likely win the tiebreaker vote in the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets a single vote.

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