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Blue Wall Falls: New poll shows Boris, Raab and IDS on track to lose seats

The Conservative Party’s ‘Blue Wall’ in the South could be destroyed at the next general election, a damning new poll has found.

Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt and Sir Iain Duncan-Smith could all be ousted in a seismic shift of the political landscape.

The fall of the ‘Blue Wall’ could also see the likes of Steve Baker, Greg Clark, Michelle Donelan and Tobias Ellwood stripped of their MP positions.

New polling of 42 Tory safe seats across England has predicted a dramatic shift in voting habits.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies say ‘every single’ safe seat is now ‘at risk for the Conservatives’.

If a general election was triggered, they say the Conservative party would retain just half of their 2019 vote share, which came amid a mammoth defeat of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.

A spokesperson from Redfield & Wilton Strategies said: ‘At this moment, they are retaining only half of their 2019 vote share.

‘While a fifth of these voters are undecided and may revert back to the Conservatives when an election forces a decision, a quarter now say they’d vote Labour (20%) or Liberal Democrat (6%).



‘Some Conservative MPs might get lucky in the confusion among opposition voters as to whom is the Conservatives’ challenger in these seats – but that will be a small consolation for the party if the current polling were to replicate itself in a general election.’

The polling suggests Labour has stormed ahead to claim 41% of the nation’s intended vote share, up 20% since 2019.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies also predict that the Tories will receive 28% of the vote share, down 22% since the last election.

The Liberal Democrats could take 24% (down 3%) and the Greens 4% (up 3%), according to the polling.

Safe seats, and their current MPs, at risk according to the new poll

Bournemouth East – Tobias Ellwood
Chelsea and Fulham – Greg Hands
Cheltenham – Alex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford Green – Sir Iain Duncan Smith
Chippenham – Michelle Donelan
Chipping Barnet – Theresa Villiers
Cities Of London and Westminster – Nickie Aiken
Colchester – Will Quince
Esher and Walton – Dominic Raab
Filton and Bradley Stoke – Jack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders Green – Mike Freer
Guildford – Angela Richardson
Harrow East – Bob Blackman
Hendon – Dr Matthew Offord
Henley – John Howell
Hitchin and Harpenden – Bim Afolami
Lewes – Maria Caulfield
Milton Keynes North – Ben Everitt
Milton Keynes South – Iain Stewart
Mole Valley – Sir Paul Beresford
Reading West – Rt Hon Alok Sharma
Romsey and Southampton North – Caroline Nokes
South Cambridgeshire – Anthony Browne
South East Cambridgeshire – Lucy Frazer
South West Surrey – Jeremy Hunt
St Ives – Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam – Paul Scully
Taunton Deane – Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate – Luke Hall
Totnes – Anthony James Holland Mangnall
Truro and Falmouth – Cherilyn Mackrory
Tunbridge Wells – Greg Clark
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Boris Johnson
Wantage – David Johnston
Watford – Dean Russell
Wells – James Heappey
West Dorset – Christopher Lionel John Loder
Wimbledon – Stephen Hammond
Winchester – Steve Brine
Woking – Jonathan Lord
Wokingham – John Redwood
Wycombe – Steve Baker

Reform UK could be left with 3% and other parties with 1% of the vote share.

The safe seats were polled by Redfield & Wilton Strategies following public discussion over the wake of the Brexit vote, which created political upheaval across the United Kingdom.

Certain areas were thought to form bricks of a new, nationwide ‘Red Wall’ of Labour resurgance.

Indeed, in recent weeks support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party has ‘catapulted’ Labour past the Lib Dems and into a strong position.


In September, the Labour party jumped ahead of the Conservatives in the latest polls with the biggest lead since the late 90s when Blair came to power.

According to a YouGov poll, Sir Keir’s party sat comfortably at 33 points ahead.

It is thought to be the largest poll lead enjoyed by any party with any pollster since the late 1990s.

And almost three times as many voters said Starmer would make the best prime minister as the number who picked Liz Truss, the poll for The Times said.

Speaking on their recent polling, Redfield & Wilton Strategies added: ‘Given such momentum for Labour across the country, the Liberal Democrats will be struggling even in places where they’ve previously done well to argue that they are the primary challenger to the Conservatives at the next general election.’

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