EU immigration to the UK underestimated by 1.6 million since 2012 – new data

Priti Patel outlines 'firmer and fairer' immigration bill

When you subscribe we will use the information you provide to send you these newsletters. Sometimes they’ll include recommendations for other related newsletters or services we offer. Our Privacy Notice explains more about how we use your data, and your rights. You can unsubscribe at any time.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised its method for calculating arrivals and departures and found from 2012-2020 the number of EU immigrants coming to the UK was up by 81 percent, or 1.64 million, on previous estimations. Forecasts had been made based on surveys contributing to a model known as Long Term International Migration.

This has since been replaced by a new method called Rapid and is based on real-life tax and benefits data.

The ONS says Rapid “has the benefit of removing uncertainty”.

Madeleine Sumption, director, Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford told The Telegraph: “The statistical narrative is just completely different to what everyone thought.”

In the 2018/2019 financial year, the number of EU immigrants arriving in the UK was more than double initial estimates.

Long Term International Migration data had forecast 186,000 arrivals from the EU27, however more than 410,000 people are believed to have entered the UK, an increase of 120 percent on predictions.

The method also fell short of calculating the number of EU nationals leaving the country.

With the net figure from 2012-2020 underestimated by 839,000.

The analysis by the Telegraph found during the nine year period, overall net immigration was on average 93,000 higher each year than previously forecast.

Brexit has enabled the UK to take further control over its borders and the Home Office has since introduced a points-based immigration system.

Following the end of free movement, EU citizens can apply to continue living and working in the UK via the EU settlement scheme, but must do so before June 30.

As of the end of May, the Government had received 5.6 million applications for the post-Brexit scheme.

The figure is also substantially higher than the official Government estimate of 3.7 million EU nationals living in the UK when applications opened in March 2019.

Successful applicants will be granted either Settled or Pre-settled status defending on how long they have lived in the UK.

EU nationals have less than a week before the deadline expires and the Government has said the date for applications will not be extended.

Immigration minister Kevin Foster said: “The EU settlement scheme has been open publicly since March 2019. We believe this has given people plenty of time to apply.


EU chief says Australia trade deal is massive concern for NI farmers [INSIGHT]
Royal Family LIVE: Harry touches down! Duke BACK on UK soil  [LIVE]
UK hot weather forecast: ‘Blowtorch heat’ to sizzle Britain [FORECAST]

“The sheer fact there have been over 5.6 million applications by the end of last month is testament to this.

“I want to be clear – we will not be extending the deadline.

“Put simply, extending the deadline is not a solution in itself to reaching those people who have not yet applied and we would just be in a position further down the line where we would be asked to extend again, creating even more uncertainty.”
Source: Read Full Article