Europe

Interactive map shows risk of being around infected people in crowds around UK

Even small crowds are more likely than not to include Covid carriers in the UK’s virus hotspots, data analysis shows.

Researchers have built an interactive map showing the risk of their being at least one coronarivus-positive person in crowds of different sizes around the UK.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, it shows there is a near-100 per cent chance a crowd of 100 people will include an infected individual in the worst-hit areas such as Liverpool, Blackburn and Nottingham.

But even groups of just 25 people were found to be more than 50 per cent likely to include a Covid carrier across much of the North West, West Yorkshire, Nottingham and large parts of Northern Ireland.

Visit our live blog for the latest updates Coronavirus news live

Strikingly, the data shows there is a one in three chance any group of 10 people will include a Covid carrier in the highest-risk areas of Knowsley, in Merseyside, Blackburn with Darwen, Nottingham and Derry City and Strabane.

The map was created by professors from Georgia Institute of Technology alongside researchers from Stanford University’s Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and can be explored here.

It shows Derry City and Strabane is currently the highest-risk area in the UK, while Moray in Scotland is the lowest.

Within England, Knowsley was shown to be the highest-risk area while Cornwall was the lowest.

Data is also shown for the US, France, Switzerland, Austria and Italy.

Their modelling assumes there are ten times more cases than are being reported based on data about the virus’ prevalence, with the team warning that the true risk rate may be lower in places with better testing.

It also assumes that people infected with the virus are just as likely to be out in public as anyone else, so the true risk level is likely to be lower if people continue to self-isolate after experiencing symptoms or when told to do so by NHS Test and Trace.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected]

For more stories like this, check our news page.

Source: Read Full Article