Scotland POLL: As independence support dips, has SNP lost chance to split Union?

Scotland: Polls show independence support is down says expert

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Our poll comes as the Scottish First Minister has been dealt a huge blow by two new polls which showed a majority of people in Scotland would vote to remain in the UK in an independence referendum.

One survey, conducted for The Scotsman by Savanta ComRes, found that 45 percent of respondents said they would vote Yes if the vote was held tomorrow.

Meanwhile, 47 percent said they would vote No and 8 percent did not know.

When unsure voters were excluded, 51 percent said they would vote in favour of the Union while 49 percent would back independence.

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The poll interviewed 1,009 people aged 16 and over between March 5 and 10.

A separate poll for The Times by YouGov found that 51 percent of respondents were in favour of the Union, while 49 percent supported independence.

The survey of 1,100 people, carried out between March 4 and 8, also showed that half of people did not want an independence referendum this year.

Almost half (48 percent) did not think a ballot should be held before 2023, compared with 33 percent who did.

Just over four in 10 (42 percent) thought there should be a vote in the next five years while 39 percent did not.

The poll in The Scotsman indicated the SNP is no longer on course for a majority in Holryood elections in May – another bitter blow for Ms Sturgeon’s bid for Scottish independence.

It found that the SNP would return 64 MSPs, missing out on a majority by one seat.

However, the poll in The Times predicted the SNP will retain a majority in the May election.

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It projected that the party will return 71 MSPs, an increase of eight, which would give a majority of 13.

SNP campaign director Keith Brown said: “This is the most important election in Scotland’s history, and it comes down to a stark choice – who should decide the country’s future. Should it be the people of Scotland or Boris Johnson?

“Polls are tightening with the vital Scottish Parliamentary election in just eight weeks’ time – and there is no room for complacency.

“Both votes [for the] SNP will re-elect Nicola Sturgeon to lead Scotland’s recovery from the pandemic and build a fairer and greener nation, with a focus on our schools, our NHS and delivering the right to choose a better future in a post-pandemic referendum.”

But Ruth Davidson is set to triumphantly tell her party conference that Scotland has “passed peak Nat”.

The Scottish Conservatives virtual spring conference starts on Saturday afternoon, running through to Monday.

Ms Davidson, who leads the party at Holyrood, is due to give a speech on Saturday afternoon.

Ms Davidson will say: “Over the last few weeks, something in Scotland has changed.

“We’ve passed peak Nat and, more and more, Scotland is saying, ‘enough’.

“An SNP majority government – once seen as a nailed-on near-certainty, and for so long the outcome almost universally forecast amongst the pundits – now looks much less sure.

“It’s vital that majority is stopped because it’s the only way to be certain that Scotland isn’t dragged back into another independence referendum when we all need to be focusing on building a recovery from the pandemic.”

Scotland voted against becoming an independent country by 55 percent to 45 percent in 2014.

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