The areas which could drop down a tier next week as Covid rates fall

Following this afternoon’s news that London now has the highest infection rate in the UK, there are fears some of the population may be put under a tougher tier.

But while some places are seeing infection rates rise and could be plunged into tier three, there are a number of areas which are seeing infection rates fall.

The latest data from Public Health England shows of the 315 local areas in England, 171 have seen a dip in case rates. has looked at areas across the country which have seen the biggest drops in infection rates to work out which areas could see a drop in tier at next week’s review.

There are currently only three areas in tier one – Cornwall, the Isle of Wight and the Isles of Scilly, which all have a case rate of less than 30 per 10,000 people.

There are a few areas which have dropped recently to under 50 and could possibly be in line to drop down to tier one, which has slightly looser restrictions by allowing groups of up to six people meet indoors.

Worthing is the lowest with only 30 cases per 100,000 people, although it has seen a slight rise in the last week. Other areas which have seen good drops in infection rates include Torbay, Dorset and Lewes.

There are also some areas which could move out of tier three, which has the harshest coronavirus restrictions across the country.

Under tier three rules pubs and restaurants are closed and the mixing of households both indoors and outdoors is banned in most places.

If areas moved to tier two, pubs and restaurants can reopen for people to visit with their own households, as long as they have a substantial meal, and groups of up to six can meet outdoors or in pub gardens.

The current average case rate for the whole of the UK is 155 per 100,000 people. To calculate which areas may move into tier two, has looked at the areas which have seen decent drops to below the average.

The area looking most likely to move from tier three to tier two is Gateshead – the case rate plunging from 152 to 92 in a week.

North West Leicestershire has also seen drops despite the case rate remaining high in the city of Leicester. The cities of Bristol and Sheffield have also seen a fall in case rate.

North Warwickshire, which has been battling to be moved down to tier two after it felt it was incorrectly grouped in with Birmingham which has high rates, is also in with a chance of moving down a tier.

The areas which could move below are estimates based on current case rates. When considering whether to adjust the tiers, the Government will base this on a number of other factors including pressure on local hospitals and the number of deaths.

Here are the estimates below on the areas which may move down a tier.

The lists from left to right read: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to December 5 (with the number of new cases recorded in brackets); rate of new cases in the seven days to November 28 (with the number of new cases recorded in brackets).

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