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US election 2020: Joe Biden now twice as likely to win over Donald Trump

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2020 has been one to forget for America, with hundreds of thousands dying of COVID-19 and unparalleled civil unrest across all 50 states in response to several instances of police brutality. The final debate on Thursday night in Nashville, Tennessee, was a refreshing respite from the absurd shouting match viewers witnessed the last time President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden squared off.

Key issues like coronavirus, race, and soaring unemployment were debated by the two candidates in a reasonably civilised manner compared to last time.

Both candidates offered markedly different visions for what post-election USA will look like, covering the current issues of lockdown, fossil fuels and climate change.

However, Mr Trump couldn’t quite shake off some of his bad habits, attempting to smear Mr Biden’s family and accusing his opponent of taking money from foreign countries.

There was also considerable distinction between the candidates’ approach to the COVID-19 crisis which has nothing short of ravaged the country.

Who is going to win the election?

Mr Biden now has a solid lead in the polls over the current president, with only 11 days to go.

The latest data from Smarkets shows Biden having a 2/3 chance of winning the presidency in November – twice as likely as the incumbent.

They have also forecast that Mr Biden will win 317 electoral college seats for the Democrats, to the Republicans 221.

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The key battleground state of Florida is now leaning slightly towards the Democrats at a 55 percent chance compared to 45 percent for the Republicans.

Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi told “With over 49 million votes already cast, the pool of undecided voters up for grabs is shrinking by the day, and last night’s debate in Tennessee contained few surprises.

“This could spell trouble for Trump as he is rapidly running out of opportunities to turn the tide back in his favour, with our key election markets remaining unmoved.”

He continued: “The final debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump took place last night in Nashville and was surprisingly calm compared to the first edition.

“Biden, buoyed by Barack Obama’s recent campaigning, successfully kept his cool and projected the kind of authority he intends to embody should he return to the White House, while Trump was much more focused than we’ve seen him of late.

“But with over 36 percent of the votes submitted in 2016 already cast (49 million votes) before the debate, it could prove to be too little too late for Trump.

“He still faces a daunting Biden lead in our Next President market, with the Democratic challenger twice as likely as the president to win in November.

“It is also a bleak picture for the incumbent in our live Electoral College forecast, which has stayed static following last night’s face-off and still predicts 317 votes for the Democrats and 221 for the Republicans.

“With the key battleground state of Florida shifting slightly towards the Democrats too, Trump is going to need something very special to turn this race around.”

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